Valora Bet — Social Prediction Markets
A betting interface a casual user can play in 10 seconds, sitting on top of honest CPMM pricing that doesn't lie about the odds.
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The Problem
Prediction markets are accurate. Nobody uses them. The forecasting math has been solved for decades — the reason normal people don't touch these platforms is the UI: order books, liquidity pools, share counts. Familiar to a trader, opaque to everyone else.
The design job wasn't another exchange. It was a betting interface a casual user can play in 10 seconds, on top of honest CPMM pricing that doesn't lie about the odds.
Key Decisions
Play money, not real money. Chose social play over a regulated exchange because shipping real-money markets means KYC, state-by-state licensing, and a legal surface I'm not staffing solo. Tradeoff: no skin-in-the-game accuracy, but I can iterate on the mechanic without a lawyer in every release.
Show the pricing math, don't hide it. Chose visible CPMM curves over a Polymarket-style clean "Yes 67¢" chip because hiding the math is how casual users get fleeced. Tradeoff: a denser bet screen, but the user can see exactly how their bet moves the price.
Let anyone create a market. Chose open authoring over a curated question set because the product dies if it's just my opinions. Tradeoff: moderation overhead and bad-question risk, mitigated by clubs and a flag-and-review loop instead of pre-approval.
AI vs. Judgment
AI scaffolded the CPMM math, Supabase schemas, RLS policies, and the clubs/leaderboards plumbing. What I wouldn't let it decide: how the bet screen frames a position. Getting that wrong turns "social prediction" into a casino UI, and the whole premise breaks.
What Didn't Work
First bet screen showed the order book like a real exchange. Testers froze. Replaced it with a slider that updates the price preview live — same math, one less concept to learn.
Also tried curated markets only for the first month; engagement cratered. Open authoring was the unlock, not the risk.
Where It Stands
Live in beta with play money. The mechanic works end-to-end. Looking for testers to break it and tell me what's confusing before the next round of cuts.